show episodes
 
We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Tim Conley and Jack Zerby slam old school direct response marketing into the startup world. Tim has been creating direct response campaigns for 16 years and Jack has just recently discovered the power of these marketing principles that are largely ignored most of the startup world. Join Tim and Jack each week as they share strategies and tactics that take startups out of the hope-and-pray efforts and into the measurable impact of direct response marketing. You'll learn everything from online ...
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show series
 
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and pra…
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By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern stream…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemp…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand …
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating lo…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. – Full transcript availab…
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In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences becom…
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In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three sta…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud a…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fe…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons tha…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philoso…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty …
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from sc…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders …
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Jonathan Siegel is a buddy of mine who lives in Tokyo. I can’t decide whether I’m more floored by the fact that he runs five businesses at once or has eight kids. He recently wrote a book The San Francisco Fallacy, mostly to share his experience with running software businesses for the last two decades with folks who might be getting a wee bit too …
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I sold Bingo Card Creator, the business I’m probably best known for, through FEI last year. Thomas Smale, the principal of that brokerage, is now a buddy of mine, and he agreed to chat with me a bit about what goes into buying and selling online businesses. I think it is of particular interest to those of you with SaaS businesses already, but it mi…
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Several years ago I wrote a blog post on salary negotiation for engineers. This probably created more value than anything else I’ve ever written — I have a folder in Gmail with thank-you messages from people, and my running total is something north of $2.3 million in added salary per year, mostly in $15k to $25k chunks. A buddy of mine, Josh Doody,…
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Keith and I are joined by special guest Jay Winder, CEO of MakeLeaps, in this 11th episode of the podcast. We talk a bit about doing business in Japan, raising money vs. bootstrapping as a SaaS company, how AngelList is going to eat the world, and the usual eclectic mix of topics. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like…
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Keith and I are back with the 10th episode of the podcast. This time we’re talking about our wives and kids, how much they mean to us (lots!), and how we try to fit being good husbands/fathers around our mutual desire to keep growing the businesses. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll le…
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Samuel Hulick, one of the guys I trust most with regards to SaaS user onboarding, joined us for this episode of the podcast. I met Sam first when he was writing a book on the topic. The best evidence I can give you for the proposition “Sam knows more than the vast majority of people about user onboarding experiences” is the fact that he’s written u…
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I recently met Steli Efti, founder of Close.io, in Palo Alto, and did a podcast episode with him. Transcript and links below as per the usual. Sidenote: I listen to a lot of podcasts and have been using Marco Arment’s Overcast app recently to do so. It was the best $5 I ever spent. Give it a whirl. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commen…
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Keith and I recorded a new episode of the podcast last year, but we didn’t get around to releasing it. [Patrick notes: The transcript below has my commentary inserted like this, as usual.] What you’ll learn in this podcast: How to pick a small, self-contained product, which is good to cut your teeth on as a dev-turned-entrepreneur. How Keith extrac…
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Have you ever asked yourself, what happens to your business if you get hurt or really sick? We break down the necessity to build systems in your company that allow you to take a hiatus, without slowing down progress. Jack speaks about his experience with Ruby and touches on outsourcing any sections of your business that cause you stress. In the lon…
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In todays episode Tim and Jack discuss the differences between good money and bad money. Your host debates what type of startup money is safest, and what kind of cash can get you in a lot of trouble. Often when we start new businesses and ideas, it requires some sort of startup investment. It is easy to go directly to family or to sources of quick …
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In today’s episode we talk about the tech fad of building apps, depending on ad revenue, and using celebrity endorsements to tweet about your company. Jack tells a classroom of Penn State Telecommunications Majors, who are working on a business idea, that not all problems can be solved with apps. Your success in business should not be dependent on …
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In todays episode Tim and Jack discuss placing all your eggs in one basket, and how to recognize when you are losing focus. A successful startup will require as many resources as you can divulge. Time, money, or a mixture of the two. Many new businesses find themselves chasing after short-term traction, and losing focus on long-term sustainability …
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In this episode Tim and Jack discuss a few classic mistakes in their careers launching products and online companies. Every market receives information in a unique way. Understanding how to communicate with your customers is the first step to surviving a launch. Tim tells us about his huge mistake of using an email marketing campaign on a customer …
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How to properly execute an MVP…In todays episode we explore some common mistakes made by new businesses on a path to success. Startups often fall into the trap of trying to “do it all.” In these moments of frustration, when the wheels feel like they’re spinning in place, we must ask ourselves the following questions. Do I want to be a business owne…
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Turning Waste Into Fortunes In this episode we explore ways to increase profitability by selling your waste, literally. Tim and Jack discuss the importance of understanding and locating potential wastes which your business can profit from. Jack is working on an interview training service for university students where they do a phone interview and g…
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A Postmortem Of A Startup Postmortem In todays episode we examine the final “nail in the coffin” of bad business marketing, margins, mistakes, and quality control, as we dive deep into online and offline business strategies. Are you making enough money to hire contractors or employees? Which should you choose and why? We break down the necessity of…
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The mind of an entrepreneur is a powerful thing. Often times our brain gets far ahead of us, trying to organize and attack many ideas at once. Are you asking yourself the most important question of your business? What are the 20% of the things you do for your business that make the largest impact in growth? This question is one that haunts many bus…
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A sales funnel is the mechanisms you create or don’t create that guide people to your buy button. What techniques, materials, information, media, and marketing are being used to convert a potential customer into a buyer? Are you using explainer videos, info graphics, email marketing, image marketing, free books, or other free materials? What are th…
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The are many key components to creating a successful podcast. From the technicalities of recording the audio to the format of the show. Asking the right questions before you sit down to create your podcast, is the first step. Determining the information and content of your show, will ultimately determine how well it sells your products or services.…
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When You Came Up With Your Idea Was It Love At First Sight? Many entrepreneurs believe that their next big business plan is as easy or hard, as coming up with an original idea, and putting it down on paper. What many don’t realize is new markets don’t often blast off into riches. Many great businesses start by finding an opportunity for growth and …
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Most startups enter the world of SaaS (Software as a Service) thinking everything is going to be rainbows and gold coins falling from the sky; where you upload your final code and watch the money pour passively into your Cayman Island bank account every single month without lifting a finger. Turns out this is NOT the case (Tim and I can both say fr…
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Knowing How To Increase Your Revenue Starts With Knowing Where To Look… Many startups know to track Cost Per Click (CPC), but not what to do with that knowledge. CPC really isn't that important until a startup needs to optimize their costs. What is really important is how much a new customer costs to acquire (CAC) from that ad spend and whether the…
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