We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Deeply researched interviews www.dwarkeshpatel.com
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) blogs on software development, marketing, and general business topics.
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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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Hamish Blake chats with other dads he really admires (and whose phone number he had relatively easy access to) about their approach to dadding, and in the process hopefully learn a little, steal some of their hard earned wisdom and help us all dad a tiny bit better.
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Hosts Melissa Won and Patrick Clancy dive deep into the stories behind the cases and the people behind the practice of law. Whether you work in legal or just find it fascinating, you’ll enjoy this original podcast from our firm.
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Narratives is a project exploring stories about progress. Narratives is hosted by Will Jarvis. For more content, transcripts, and show notes, check out narrativespodcast.com
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Welcome to Lead Conversion - Behind the Scenes where your hosts Robbie T. and Valencia Brown dive deep into what it takes to be successful in Lead Conversion. Robbie and Valencia will talk about the ups and downs of generating and converting leads into sales and share tips, tricks, and strategies for being successful.
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Launchers is a podcast for web designers. (and people who want to become one) More specifically, people who want to build their own web design business and design their ideal lifestyle. This podcast will teach you how to start and grow your very own successful, location-independent web design business. Because being a digital nomad is SO HOT RIGHT NOW. Launchers is hosted by Patrick Antinozzi, founder and owner of RapidWebLaunch. patrick@rapidweblaunch.com
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The Press Room (TPR) podcast, presented by Zwift, features fun and engaging interviews with the world’s best cyclists.
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AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and pra…
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E52: How Tech Journalism Works w/ Patrick McKenzie
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In this special episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Patrick McKenzie explore the evolving landscape of tech journalism, media narratives about the tech industry, and how the industry is increasingly telling its own story. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/2dab4f2e-f8b1-410b-9bc4-b4a9b137c22f 📰Be notified early when Turpen…
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How Michael “Wippa” Wipfli Dads - Nothing is impossible, (Except, maybe a serious conversation with Hame)
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One of Hamish’s oldest and dearest friends finally sits down on the HODD couch for a well overdue chat. Wippa and Hame talk all the time, but not often about the deep stuff that drives them to be better dads. In a conversation that is equal parts serious and silly, Hame and Wip discuss the formative impact of Wip’s own dad, dealing with big questio…
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E55: Futarchy, Elon, and Gut Decisions in Business
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This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. Fo…
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How Andy Griffiths Dads - Bum jokes, imagination and loving what is
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Andy is responsible for igniting a love of reading in millions of kids. It’s a complex alchemy, but bum jokes have played a large part in it. From The Day My Bum Went Psycho to the hugely popular Treehouse series (which he created with longtime collaborator Terry Denton and which was edited by his wife Jill), Andy has written wild, boundless and ve…
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Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart
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By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern stream…
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, explore the impact of technological change on markets and businesses, discussing economic bubbles, the future of AI, the post-election political landscape, and Byrne's upcoming book Boom, which examines the role of bubbles in infrastructure development. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/449…
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Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory
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Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog, you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive. In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter voice over his words after. This amuse…
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Inside our opening episode of the ROADSIDE Cycling Show, our hosts Tom and Jet discuss the latest news and dramas in pro cycling during this off-season. Salary Caps in Pro Cycling Blake Quick, Rudy Porter & Cameron Scott without a contract Tom Pidcock off-season career dramas Post Tour Criterium match fixing? Jet’s HUGE comeback to local racing And…
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How Rick J Petersen Dads - Survival tips for living a life connected (not Alone)
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An awesome outdoorsy special, with inspirational outdoor specialist, Rick Petersen. Rick featured in Season 2 of Alone Australia, and quickly became a fan fave (especially for Hame), with his unwavering positivity in the face of huge adversity and very little food! Beyond trying to stay alive on Alone, using his skills as an ex-soldier and expediti…
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E53: Election Analysis, Heresy, and Real Estate
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This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the evolving landscape of heretical ideas, election dynamics, AI and crypto’s market impacts, prediction markets, the shifting Overton window, contrarian perspectives, and trends in housing and smaller social networks. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/77be6b84-0f55-4dcc-9dd1…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover…
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How Luke Carroll Dads - The “beautiful challenge” of parenting in a blended family and what Play School has taught him about kids
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As a long time host of Play School, Luke’s probably spent more time entertaining kids than any of us ever will! But beyond that, he’s an amazingly accomplished actor… from getting his start on the kids show Lift Off! back in the early 90s, to being a regular on the awesome Redfern Now and more recently in the big budget adaption of The Artful Dodge…
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From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like …
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In this episode, Valencia picks Robby's brain about how to set yourself up for long-term success. Far too often, we work so hard without any exit plan. This is a major mistake. Robby T. reveals his insights on setting goals, building wealth, and avoiding common investment pitfalls. Learn about the importance of creating a financial exit strategy, m…
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How Nathan Fa’avae Dads - Creating the ultimate team… your family!
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When you push your limits and things get a little uncomfortable, you often learn something about yourself. When you repeatedly do it for years, we reckon you must learn some universal truths about humans and how we tick. As a professional adventure racer, Nathan has spent much of his adult life pushing his physical and mental boundaries and helping…
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Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemp…
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E51: Venture Scale, Y Combinator, and Financial Bubbles
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In this episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart discusses his upcoming book about financial bubbles, venture scale businesses, creator financing, and prediction markets. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d084ef81-e3cd-41b2-be04-b6fc2bbe3f7a 📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiv…
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How Bret McKenzie Dads - A creative play masterclass from a master of creativity
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HODD overseas adventure time! We headed to Wellington to chat with Kiwi comedy and music legend, and one half of Flight of the Conchords, Bret McKenzie and he gave us a masterclass on playing with our kids. Bret makes up silly stuff for a day job (he even won an Oscar for it!) and as a dad he’s focused his gift for absurdity and daftness into creat…
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E50: Freemium Apps, Restaurants, and Search with Patrick McKenzie
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In this special episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie, host of the podcast Complex Systems to discuss a range of topics including app business models, restaurant industry economics, AI's impact on productivity, the evolution of search technologies and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Netw…
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How real estate investing works with Moses Kagan
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They …
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Join Robby T as he puts Valencia in the hot seat, breaking down the best ways we can understand leads in today's market. Valencia shares expert insights on understanding leads' emotional states, motivations, and financial readiness. Discover the power of direct, empathetic communication and learn why assumptions can derail success. Whether you're n…
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How Patrick Brammall Dads - An atypical path to dadding, and all the typical ups and downs!
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He’s been on our screens making us laugh for years, most recently in Colin From Accounts, but in this chat Patrick Brammall unpacks one of his more meaty roles to date… Being a first time dad! Patty’s path to parenthood is a little unique with him and his wife Harriet Dyer adopting a baby girl in 2021 (Harriet is also co-creator/co-star of Colin Fr…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand …
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E49: AI Art, Young Founders, and Disrupting Higher Education
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the shifting dynamics of careers and education, the notion of "auto-paternalism" in organizational choices, Spotify's growth strategy in a mature market, the future of podcasts and audio content, and the intricate relationship between AI art, property rights and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Found…
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How Dr Richard “Harry” Harris Dads - teaching kids to be good risk managers, not risk takers + lots more!
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“I wasn’t going to miss the podcast just because I was slightly paralysed” - It’s one of the better quotes we’ve had on the show! But it neatly sums up the unassuming yet unflappable nature of Dr Harry, who unless you were on a 12 month silent retreat in 2018, you’d know was the cave diving anaesthetist who helped in the against all odds rescue of …
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E48: Facebook vs MySpace, Why Peter Thiel is Wrong About Competition, and OpenAI Corporate Structure
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57:23
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into a range of fascinating topics such as the evolution and future of OpenAI's business model, economic rationale behind corporate buybacks, changing software economics, China's recent equity market surge and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.tur…
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The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with Jim McKenzie
1:52:36
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating lo…
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Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works
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A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade. Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history. * What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled * $ 1T+ in datacenter b…
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In this episode of "Behind the Scenes of Lead Conversion," hosts Valencia and Robby T dive into the Six Pillars to Remain Relevant in the fast-paced real estate market. With a lively mix of humor and deep insights, they share actionable strategies that can help real estate professionals thrive even in challenging times. From continuous learning, le…
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E47: Cult Stocks, Tech Media, and Technological Revolutions
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss cult stocks like Tesla and Palantir, debate whether AI or globalization will impact jobs more, explore the energy transition's unexpected reversal, analyze Forbes' content strategy and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ ---…
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How Santo Cilauro Dads - Provide Consistency, Variation… Oh, and strap yourself in!
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He’s helped create some of Australia’s most memorable comedic characters, battled tirelessly to elevate Football (the proper round ball kind!) to the upper echelons of Australian sport, and most importantly, he’s the father to 2 (now adult) sons. But before looking at his own dadding, Santo takes us back to Melbourne in the 1960s and 70s, painting …
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Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne Hobart
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. – Full transcript availab…
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How Ben Quilty Dads - Drawing lessons from life and a life drawing lesson!
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As one of Australia’s great contemporary artists, Ben’s compassion and humanity is evident in all his work, and so is his willingness to self-examine. So perhaps unsurprisingly in his chat with Hamish, Ben opens up about what shaped him in his own childhood, his thoughts on masculinity, the shockwave of sadness that hit him recently when his adult …
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E46: Degrowth, Private Equity, and the EU Tech Industry
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg tackle the current state of the EU's tech sector, evolution of private equity firms, consumer credit defaults, online reputation management and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eaves…
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Decisions Nobody Made, policy edition, with Dave Guarino
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In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences becom…
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Daniel Yergin – Oil Explains the Entire 20th Century
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Unless you understand the history of oil, you cannot understand the rise of America, WW1, WW2, secular stagnation, the Middle East, Ukraine, how Xi and Putin think, and basically anything else that's happened since 1860. It was a great honor to interview Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize - the best history of oil ever wr…
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Valencia Brown and Robbie T dive into the six keys to better conversations in this episode of Lead Conversion, Behind the Scenes. They discuss the importance of active listening, asking open-ended questions, digging deeper to uncover true motivations and the value of mirroring and matching. They also highlight the need for clear, concise communicat…
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How Wayne Hope Dads - Stepdadding, working on yourself, dadding after trauma and creating joy.
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As a prolific co-creator of Australian comedy classics like Upper Middle Bogan, Wayne is probably more comfortable bringing to life hilarious, and hilariously flawed characters, rather than reflecting on his own life. But we know Wayne to be so thoroughly kind, thoughtful and wise that we really put the screws on him to come and have a chat. Thankf…
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In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three sta…
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E45: Efficient Market Hypothesis, Missing Billionaires, and Digital Currencies
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the efficiency of market hypothesis, explores the complexities of breaking up big tech companies, unpacks the intriguing dynamics of currencies from nations to video game gems and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:…
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E44: Founder Mode, Uber’s Self-Driving Strategy, and Big Tech Skepticism
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, networked nature of the finance industry, the strategic direction of Uber in autonomous vehicles, the merits of 'founder mode' and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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Finally, after waaaaaay too long, Season 3 of HODD is here. Well, actually… not just yet. It’s here next Friday, September 13. But boy, is it close!! To wet your appetite, here is a little taste of what’s to come this season. We’ve been lucky to chat with some absolutely wonderful guest dads who will make you laugh, reflect, reminisce and maybe eve…
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That time we accidentally created national healthcare infrastructure, with Dave Kasten
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the…
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David Reich - How One Small Tribe Conquered the World 70,000 Years Ago
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I had no idea how wild human history was before chatting with the geneticist of ancient DNA David Reich. Human history has been again and again a story of one group figuring ‘something’ out, and then basically wiping everyone else out. From the tribe of 1k-10k modern humans who killed off all the other human species 70,000 years ago; to the Yamnaya…
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The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws …
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E43: The Silicon Valley Canon, Smart Contracts, and the Yen Carry Trade
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the Silicon Valley Canon, impact of tech on traditional markets, the evolution of smart contracts, risks of currency carry trades and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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Joe Carlsmith - Otherness and control in the age of AGI
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Chatted with Joe Carlsmith about whether we can trust power/techno-capital, how to not end up like Stalin in our urge to control the future, gentleness towards the artificial Other, and much more. Check out Joe's sequence on Otherness and Control in the Age of AGI here. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platf…
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E42: Navigating Tech Antitrust and the Future of AI
1:03:15
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss tricky antitrust decisions, Balaji’s Network State, the dynamics of content moderation, and more. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on K…
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Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies
1:23:56
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud a…
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