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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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The Diff

Byrne Hobart

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The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. Fo…
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By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern stream…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and pra…
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Today on Upstream, Rudyard Lynch and Samo Burja discuss the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, the decline of French influence in Africa, the psychology of modernity, and the potential future of free versus controlled internet. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d3195f8d-9dc3-4891-83d6-3354a83efbe9 — 📰Be notified ea…
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Emil Michael, formerly the Chief Business Officer of Uber, talked to Erik Torenberg and Jesse Genet about the most intense moments during Uber's meteoric rise. Its been reported that he's on the short list of Trump's picks for US Secretary of Transportation. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/f213f7ab-3627-4d15-b151-0238f9ebd1…
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This week, we’re featuring discussions with Dario Amodei, Balaji Srinivasan, Marc Andreessen, Michael Levin, and Samo Burja on AGI scaling laws, AI safety, and AI development, exploring themes such as the evolution of AI, economic implications, and philosophical aspects of intelligence. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/9192…
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, explore the impact of technological change on markets and businesses, discussing economic bubbles, the future of AI, the post-election political landscape, and Byrne's upcoming book Boom, which examines the role of bubbles in infrastructure development. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/449…
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In this episode of Upstream, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss how Trump's victory signals a new alliance between right-wing politics and tech industry leaders like Elon Musk while exploring the challenges and opportunities of reforming government institutions through technological innovation. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com…
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This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the evolving landscape of heretical ideas, election dynamics, AI and crypto’s market impacts, prediction markets, the shifting Overton window, contrarian perspectives, and trends in housing and smaller social networks. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/77be6b84-0f55-4dcc-9dd1…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover…
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In this episode, Erik and Yarvin discuss media, power, and what Elon should do with Twitter. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/b9c0012c-979b-441e-9fb3-6394bef6a7ad — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik To…
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In this episode, Erik sits down with Agnes Callard, a philosopher and essayist who specializes in ancient philosophy, ethics, and Socratic communication. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/cee0a35b-4a10-4c3a-a988-7d9b3d7b7db4 — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveacc…
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In this special episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Patrick McKenzie explore the evolving landscape of tech journalism, media narratives about the tech industry, and how the industry is increasingly telling its own story. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/2dab4f2e-f8b1-410b-9bc4-b4a9b137c22f 📰Be notified early when Turpen…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like …
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Richard Hanania joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his upcoming book on elite human capital, the future of American politics, and his evolving views on culture war issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/af273f63-9f1b-49e1-8fed-28296237498b — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Tools, Agents, Interfaces, and Synthetic Luck: AI Interaction Models (06:40) - Lyft Got Fined For Telling the Truth and is Now Compelled to Lie to Drivers (09:59) - Ozempic and Signaling (10…
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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle the shift in economic research from empirical studies to "big think" theories, critically examine Acemoglu's work on institutions and AI's impact on jobs, and debate the future of economics as a science. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d1548747-43db-4b71-b0a8-af285d3deafd — 📰Be notified…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemp…
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This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore the global demographic crisis, examining plummeting fertility rates worldwide and their potentially catastrophic implications for humanity's future. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/0d2557ac-2da6-4087-b6b4-b55f326b47fd — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops …
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In this episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart discusses his upcoming book about financial bubbles, venture scale businesses, creator financing, and prediction markets. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d084ef81-e3cd-41b2-be04-b6fc2bbe3f7a 📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiv…
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In this episode, Dr. Michael Levin, Distinguished Professor of Biology at Tufts University, joins Nathan Labenz of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast to discuss embodied minds, his research into limb regeneration and collective intelligence, cognitive light cones, and much more. Dr. Levin and the Levin Lab work at the intersection of biology, artific…
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In this special episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie, host of the podcast Complex Systems to discuss a range of topics including app business models, restaurant industry economics, AI's impact on productivity, the evolution of search technologies and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Netw…
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Bryan Johnson joins Antonio Garcia Martinez and Erik Torenberg to discuss the deeper spiritual beliefs behind the "Don't Die" movement in the face of AI and the inadequacy of human clock speed. They cover religions as death cults, long-termism vs engineering your own longevity, and Bryan's recent interview on Tucker Carlson. — 🔥 Apply to join over …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They …
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This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a conversation between Patrick McKenzie and Byrne Hobart where they navigate the compelling terrains of in-app purchases and restaurant economics. They dive into the monetization strategies of video games and the influence of food delivery platforms like DoorDash on pricing and menu designs and explore the bri…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg sits in with social psychologist Jonathan Haidt to discuss his book, 'The Anxious Generation.' They dive into the severe impact of social media on youth mental health and explore Jonathan's recommendations for smartphone and social media usage among teens. They discuss the broader implications for democra…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand …
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the shifting dynamics of careers and education, the notion of "auto-paternalism" in organizational choices, Spotify's growth strategy in a mature market, the future of podcasts and audio content, and the intricate relationship between AI art, property rights and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Found…
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This week on Upstream, former Netflix HR executive Patty McCord sits down with Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich to dive deep into the creation and impact of Netflix's renowned culture deck, hailed as a pivotal document in Silicon Valley. Patty shares the evolution of the deck over 10 years with Netflix's management team, the challenges of scaling a…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into a range of fascinating topics such as the evolution and future of OpenAI's business model, economic rationale behind corporate buybacks, changing software economics, China's recent equity market surge and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.tur…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating lo…
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This week on Upstream, we revisit a 2023 conversation between Jacob Helberg, Delian Asparouhov, Christian Garrett and Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries and Oculus VR where they discuss the intersection of Silicon Valley and U.S. defense technology. They tackle the challenges of defense tech innovation, the influence of Chinese technology…
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Corporal Dmytro joins New Frontier to discuss his experiences in the Ukrainian military and the ongoing conflict with Russia. Some highlights: Firsthand account of the Russian invasion's early days and the chaos of initial combat operations Evolution of the conflict from early artillery dominance to drone warfare and trench combat Comparison of Ukr…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg is joined by economist and futurist Robin Hanson. They dissect the intricacies of human motives, the psychology of status, and the profound impact of self-deception on behavior. Robin shares his revolutionary ideas for reforming academia and his pioneering work on prediction markets and his thoughts on th…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss cult stocks like Tesla and Palantir, debate whether AI or globalization will impact jobs more, explore the energy transition's unexpected reversal, analyze Forbes' content strategy and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ ---…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integrati…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. – Full transcript availab…
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This week on Upstream, we’re featuring a discussion between Samo Burja, Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg about the inherent differences between civilizations and their impact on history and politics. They explore the parallels and distinctions between ancient civilizations like Babylon and modern entities like Silicon Valley, the influence of Abrah…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg tackle the current state of the EU's tech sector, evolution of private equity firms, consumer credit defaults, online reputation management and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eaves…
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Erik Torenberg is joined by Noor Siddiqui, founder and CEO of Orchid, to explore groundbreaking advancements in reproductive technology, especially the world's first whole genome embryo screening. They dive into genome sequencing, IVF, and the ethical implications of these technologies, highlighting their potential to significantly reduce the incid…
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In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences becom…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Will The EU Choose to Compete? (13:45) - Unit Economics (15:02) - Coreweave and Capital Structure Arbitrage (15:57) - AI and the Distribution Problem (17:10) - Markets and Narratives (18:15)…
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Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja are joined by Ben Landau-Taylor, a Senior Analyst at Bismarck Analysis. Ben recently published an article in Palladium Magazine about the pervasive problem of fraud in academia. They discussed how fraudulent activities, particularly in medical research, often go undetected due to flawed peer review processes and instit…
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This week on Upstream, we’re dropping the first episode of Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's newest podcast This Won’t Last. The show is an unfiltered backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in venture, startup culture, and business. In this episode they discuss Paul Graham’s essay "Founder Mode", AI valuations, th…
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In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three sta…
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