Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Global Economic & Markets Research team will cover off on the latest market and economic news and dive deep into the big issues impacting the Australian and global economy. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.
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FX Weekly – New US tariff regime will drive currencies in coming weeks or months
6:25
6:25
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6:25In this week’s podcast, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss President Trump’s announcement of a new tariff regime and what it means for currencies. Financial markets will also closely watch economic data releases this week, including US consumer confidence, US personal consumption expenditures index and Australia’s CPI indicator. Disclaimer: Im…
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Aussie Weekly: Labour force lottery strikes again ahead of Federal Budget and CPI
13:44
13:44
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13:44The labour force survey was an unusual set of numbers last week, headlined by a large fall in employment. The Federal Budget will be handed down this week but CBA are of the view there won't be too much in the way of new announcements. The Monthly CPI Indicator is also due and it could be critical in determining the RBA's next move. In this week's …
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FX Weekly: Currencies can react to Germany’s fiscal package and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings this week.
6:40
6:40
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6:40Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currencies this week including the approval of Germany’s fiscal package and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of…
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Aussie weekly: CommBank HSI for February lacklustre, labour market data up next
15:42
15:42
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15:42A quieter week locally but Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley deep dive into the CommBank Househould Spending Insights for February as well as the latest business and consumer surveys. Labour market data is up next and they also discuss the aluminium and steel tariffs imposed on Australia by the US. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This…
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FX Weekly – Fiscal plans in Europe, US CPI, Bank of Canada meeting and Japan’s ‘Shunto’
7:15
7:15
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7:15Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers for currencies this week including the fiscal plans in Europe, the US consumer price index for February, the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting and Japan’s Shunto wage negotiations. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“…
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Aussie Weekly: Australian economic growth picks up and hawkish RBA minutes
18:10
18:10
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18:10The December quarter National Accounts revealed the economy grew by 0.6%/qtr, but the detail shows private sector momentum was weaker. Gareth Aird and Stephen Wu also discuss the hawkish RBA Minutes, where the RBA has gone out of their way to not give forward guidance. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Gl…
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FX Weekly - Tariffs and Chinese stimulus will be important for currencies this week
7:31
7:31
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7:31Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key drivers for currencies this week including potential additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and China’s “Two Sessions” meetings. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research …
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Aussie Weekly: January CPI unchanged and big data week ahead
14:26
14:26
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14:26Last week the January CPI Indicator was unchanged at 2.5%/yr against expectations of a lift. Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen discuss the details and the implications for the RBA. This week we are spoilt for choice data wise, December quarter GDP and consumer spending for January will be the focus. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is appr…
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FX Weekly: US PCE, Aussie CPI and German election
9:20
9:20
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9:20Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including the US personal consumption expenditures index for January, the Australian consumer price index for January and the German election. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research…
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Aussie Weekly: RBA cuts cash rate to 4.10%
13:37
13:37
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13:37Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%. Following this, key data on wages and unemployment was released in one of the biggest weeks for the Australian economy in a long time. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist Belinda Allen take a deep dive into the decision its…
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FX Weekly: RBA, RBNZ and more tariff announcements
5:26
5:26
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5:26Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting and US tariffs. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division o…
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Aussie Weekly: RBA to cut rates before jobs and wages data
12:56
12:56
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12:56CBA expects the RBA to deliver a 25bp cut at its February meeting. Financial markets also anticipate such an outcome. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics, and Stephen Wu, Senior Economist, discuss why the RBA will cut the cash rate on Tuesday but are unlikely to commit to further cuts just yet. Plus, what to expect from the January labour for…
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FX Weekly: Tariff announcements can weigh on the Australian dollar this week
6:08
6:08
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6:08Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the key influences on currency markets this week. Tariff announcements could push the Australian dollar lower. Markets will also watch FOMC Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress and the US CPI for January. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets R…
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There was a steady stream of data out last week including retail trade and the ABS monthly household spending indicator (MHSI). Overall, the spending data was stronger than we expected for the final quarter of last year but it shouldn't have too much of an impact on the February RBA Board meeting. This week, there we will release our CommBank HSI a…
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FX Weekly – Tariffs, Bank of England meeting and NZ labour market data
6:39
6:39
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6:39Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences affecting currency markets this week, including US tariffs, the Bank of England’s policy meeting and New Zealand’s Q4 24 labour market data. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the …
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Aussie Weekly: CPI greenlights RBA interest rate cut
11:53
11:53
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11:53The Q4 24 CPI data was a welcome set of numbers and in our view, greenlights an interest rate cut from the RBA later this month. In this week's podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist Stephen Wu take a closer look at the CPI data and the implications for the RBA, and preview the spending data coming out this week.…
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Sustainable Economics: Lowering truck emissions - limited today, promising future
14:11
14:11
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14:11Trucks contribute to 27% of road transport emissions although being only 3% of vehicles in Australia. Despite low uptake of low-emission vehicles in Australia and globally, logistics and freight corporates are leading the way with various electric truck trials. In this episode, John Oh, Sustainable Economist, and Joseph Capurso, Head of Internation…
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FX Weekly - Tariffs, the Australian CPI and central banks announcements can drive currencies this week
8:51
8:51
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8:51Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the major influences on the currencies this week including tariff news, Australian inflation data and several central bank interest rate announcements. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwe…
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While President Trump continues to dominate world news and global markets, the domestic focus this week will be on the critical Q4 2024 CPI data which could make or break the case for a February rate cut. In this week's podcast, Economist, Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Stephen Wu take a deep dive on what we are expecting when the data prints a…
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The outlook for the Australian economy looks brighter in 2025 driven by expected interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team deep dives into the outlook for growth, the labour market, inflation, wages, investment and housing. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podc…
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FX Weekly – President Trump’s inauguration, NZ CPI and Bank of Japan’s meeting
6:58
6:58
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6:58Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including President Trump’s inauguration, New Zealand’s Q4 24 CPI and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commo…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights December 2024
10:39
10:39
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10:39The choppy holiday spending period continued in December with a fall of 1.8% in the month in the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. This fall followed gains in October and November. Four categories fell in the month with Household goods recording the largest fall. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive…
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FX Weekly - US CPI and Australian labour force data will be important for the Australian dollar this week
8:41
8:41
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8:41Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the top three influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour force data and China’s fourth quarter GDP which will tell us if the Chinese authorities met their 2024 economic growth target of ‘around 5%’. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and dis…
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Aussie Weekly: A very good inflation report to start the year
15:03
15:03
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15:03In this week’s episode – the first for 2025 – Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s November inflation report and why it’s positive news for the Australian inflation story. They also dive into the various spending measures and cover what to look out for in this Thursday’s jobs report. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is appr…
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Aussie Weekly: RBA pivots dovish before shock fall in unemployment rate pares rate cut hopes
16:12
16:12
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16:12It was a wild week for Australian financial market participants. The much-awaited dovish pivot from the RBA Board arrived on Tuesday with both the statement and post-meeting press conference striking a more optimistic tone on inflation and the outlook for policy. But this renewed market optimism around the prospect of a February rate cut took a hit…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights November 2024
11:12
11:12
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11:12Black Friday sales saw a lift in the CommBank Household Spending Insights in November 2024. The HSI rose by 1.3%/mth led by Household goods. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in this podcast and discuss the outlook for December and 2025 given the interest rate outlook. ------ DISCLAIMER ---…
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FX Weekly: US CPI and central bank announcements will be important for currencies
10:55
10:55
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10:55Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and three central bank interest rate announcements. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business divi…
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A busy week locally with the Q3 24 GDP data. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the weak result and discuss the consumer spending component of the data given its importance. Another busy week looms with the RBA Board meeting and November labour force data. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Important Infor…
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FX Weekly: US labour market data, Australian GDP and French politics to impact currencies this week
8:28
8:28
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8:28In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week, including US labour market data, Australian GDP and political uncertainty in France. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of th…
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Economics Weekly – Monthly CPI showing positive signs ahead of Q3 24 GDP
15:55
15:55
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15:55In this week’s podcast, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley take a close look at the monthly CPI data from last week, with mostly good news to report. They also talk through the RBA Governor’s speech at the CEDA Annual Conference. They then turn to the week ahead and preview the all important Q3 24 National Accounts. Disclaimer: …
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Mandatory climate reporting in 2025 – the what, the why, and so what?
9:40
9:40
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9:40In 2025, mandatory climate reporting will be introduced and phased in over three years, impacting approximately 4,000 – 5,000 of the largest entities in Australia. In this episode, Commonwealth Bank’s sustainability economist, John Oh, sit down with Dennis Voznesenski to breakdown what climate reporting is, why mandatory climate reporting is being …
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Global economy enters 2025 under cloud of uncertainty
13:53
13:53
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13:53Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the outlook for the major economies in 2025, and expectations for central bank interest rates. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945…
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Tax cuts and tax hikes: Make America Uncompetitive Again?
13:32
13:32
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13:32It’s been three weeks since the re-election of President Donald Trump. Two key proposed taxation policies have been increased tariffs and increased tax cuts for businesses and consumers that will be likely be implemented in 2025 and 2026, respectively. To put all of this into context, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics,…
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FX Weekly - Updates from the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be important for currencies this week.
7:44
7:44
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7:44In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the US PCE deflator, the Australian October CPI and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed …
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Economics Weekly: RBA Minutes a puzzle and monthly CPI preview
10:42
10:42
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10:42Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu reflect on last week’s RBA Board meeting minutes which created some confusion over the interest rate outlook. In particular the minutes noted the RBA is forward looking but at the same time noting they need to see more than one ‘good CPI print (CPI is a lagging indicator). They also preview the October monthly CPI where…
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How could President Trump and tariffs impact the Australian economy?
9:41
9:41
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9:41In a special podcast episode Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive into how the Australian economy could be impacted by a potential escalation in a trade war. In short the direct impact from US tariffs should be limited, but the indirect impact from a slowdown in China could be larger. While there remains uncertainty over the timing, size and dura…
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FX Weekly – FX intervention in Japan getting closer
6:10
6:10
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6:10In this week’s podcast, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the ongoing capital flows into US dollar assets, the UK CPI and the possibility of FX intervention in Japan. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Austra…
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Economics Weekly: Labour and wages data create a puzzle
17:34
17:34
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17:34Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen deep dive into last week’s labour market and wages data. Softer wages growth but an unchanged unemployment rate hints there is more capacity in the labour market then the data suggests. This week is quiet with some RBA speeches and the Minutes out. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advis…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights October 2024
11:09
11:09
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11:09The CommBank HSI rose by 0.8% in October on stronger spending on Household goods, Recreation and Communications & Digital. Spending has been choppy in recent months with Utilities spend lower on rebates. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the key insights from the series and what it means for the RBA. ---…
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FX Weekly - US election news can still drive currency markets
10:44
10:44
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10:44Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the key influences impacting on currencies this week including continued news on the US election, Chinese economic stimulus news and Australian and UK labour market data. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a busines…
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Economics Weekly – Will Trump’s win impact the Australian Economy? + RBA on hold ahead of key labour market data
12:58
12:58
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12:58In this week’s Podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley from the Aussie economics team break down a wild week in world politics, markets, and the local economic news flow. They discuss if we have changed our view on the Australian economy based on the US election result, as well as the RBA Board’s decision to leave the cas…
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FX Weekly - US election will drive currency markets this week
8:59
8:59
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8:59In this week’s episode we discuss the key drivers of the Australian dollar this week including the US election, RBA and Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, and the expected Chinese economic stimulus announcement. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a bus…
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Economic Weekly: Inflation not falling quickly enough for a rate cut this year
17:37
17:37
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17:37All eyes were on the Q3 24 CPI data last week. While inflation continues to moderate, the disinflation process is not occurring quickly enough to warrant a rate cut by year end. As a result, we have shifted our base case and now expect the first interest rate cut to arrive in February next year. In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics,…
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FX Weekly – Key economic data in Australia and the US to drive currencies, more volatility ahead for the Japanese yen
9:26
9:26
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9:26In this episode, Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton talk through the key economic data in Australia and the US that can drive currencies this week. They also discuss their expectations for the Japanese yen given the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and political uncertainty. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by G…
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Economics Weekly: All eyes on CPI and spend data
15:29
15:29
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15:29After a quiet weekly locally the data flow ramps up with the release of the important September quarter inflation figures. Senior Economists Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the expectations for the Q3 24 CPI and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade data and the ABS HSI measure is released for September and can partially settle the deba…
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FX Weekly - US election getting closer, Bank of Canada could deliver a large cut this week
9:30
9:30
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9:30Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting currency markets including the upcoming US election, interest rate differentials which have moved in favour of the Australian dollar, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by …
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Economics Weekly – Strong employment growth reduces odds of near-term rate cut
15:34
15:34
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15:34The strength of the labour market continues to surprise. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the recent strength in the Australian labour market and outline the implications for the RBA. They also talk through some of the thematic research the Aussie economics team published last week on inflat…
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Global Economics - Interest rate cuts to improve global economic outlook in 2025
21:18
21:18
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21:18The global interest rate cut cycle has started. And there are many more interest rate cuts ahead across most major economies. CBA’s view is that the interest rate cuts will improve global economic outlook in 2025. In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to d…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights September 2024
9:33
9:33
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9:33The CommBank HSI fell by 0.7% in September as consumers pulled back spending after the Father’s Day boosted splurge in August. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss the all the key takeaways from the September HSI in today’s podcast. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read …
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FX Weekly - Chinese stimulus disappoints markets
8:27
8:27
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8:27In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Chinese fiscal stimulus, Australian labour market data, the NZ CPI and the ECB’s interest rate announcement. Disclaimer: Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“…
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