Assessing the initial and subsequent rounds of bilateral negotiations with the United States, Iranian officials have expressed surprise at the rapid pace of diplomatic engagement. This acceleration is primarily ascribed to the limited scope of U.S. demands, the relative inexperience or subject-matter unfamiliarity of American negotiators, a pronoun…

By Ali Alfoneh

By Ali Alfoneh

Foreign Minister Dr. Abbas Araghchi has asserted that U.S. interlocutors have refrained from introducing extraneous, non-nuclear issues during the most recent round of negotiations. He confirmed that technical-level discussions would resume in Muscat on Wednesday, April 23, and that he would reconvene with U.S. Special Envoy Mr. Steven Witkoff on S…

Receiving the Saudi Defense Minister in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose a condescending attitude in dealing with the younger brother of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, but the fact that he received him undermines policy recommendation of Iranian strategist Dr. Mehdi Kharatian, who argues Iran can improve its negotiation position vis a vis th…

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei states he is “neither excessively optimistic, nor excessively pessimistic” regarding Iran’s bilateral diplomatic engagement with the United States—an appropriate stance, given the latest recalibration in U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steven Witkoff’s position on Iran’s uranium enrichment capaci…

As a prelude to potential diplomatic engagement with the United States, the Islamic Republic is strategically signaling both deterrence and openness to negotiation. The activation of Yemeni Houthi proxies and the controlled disclosure of the Revolutionary Guard’s subterranean missile infrastructure serve as calibrated demonstrations of Iran’s strat…

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s March 20 New Year address was far from jubilant, conveying a tone of somber resilience rather than triumphalism. He acknowledged that Iranians had endured significant economic hardship over the past year, with further adversities likely in the year ahead. Regarding recent communications from President Donald J. Trump and ot…

As the Islamic Republic of Iran prepares for negotiations with the administration of President Donald J. Trump, the Islamic Republic finds itself in urgent need of expendable bargaining assets to safeguard the strategic core of its nuclear program. Yemen’s Houthis, a key force aligned with Iran’s regional ambitions, present an ideal sacrificial pie…

Iran faces escalating environmental and infrastructural crises, exposing governance deficiencies. Tehran’s seismic vulnerability is critical, with accumulated tectonic stress indicating a high-probability magnitude 7+ earthquake. Rapid urbanization and inadequate disaster preparedness put millions at risk. Simultaneously, Iran’s energy crisis worse…

By Ali Alfoneh

On the same day that former Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Mohammed Gargash visited Tehran, purportedly to deliver an official communique from President Donald J. Trump to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei categorically dismissed the prospect of diplomatic negotiations with the United States.…

On March 7, during an interview with Fox Business, President Donald J. Trump asserted that he had dispatched a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating: "I hope you're going to negotiate because it's going to be a lot better for Iran... If we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them... The other a…

Today’s discussion is dedicated to Iran-Russia relations, with a particular focus on Moscow’s diplomatic overture to facilitate U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to broker nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic. First, I will analyze the strategic implications of Russia’s proposal, which was initially reported by Bloomberg News on Ma…

On March 2, a parliamentary majority impeached Dr. Abdulnaser Hemmati, minister of economy. Defending Hemmati, President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized to parliamentarians that Iran's economic problems will not be solved with the impeachment, and pointed at a different solution: Negotiations with the United States, in the hope of achieving sanction r…

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has recently conveyed contradictory signals regarding the prospect of direct diplomatic engagement with the United States. On January 28, his remarks suggested openness to such negotiations, whereas on February 7, he appeared to reject the possibility. Officials within the Islamic Republic have subsequently int…

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has once again recalibrated his strategic posture concerning diplomatic engagement with the United States. In his January 28 address, he appeared to tacitly endorse diplomatic negotiations with Washington. However, on February 7, Khamenei asserted that engaging in negotiations with President Donald J. …

The Islamic Republic operated under a system of collective leadership throughout the 1980s. At the time, this governance structure remained largely unrecognized by external observers, but those with insight into Iran’s political dynamics understood that supreme authority did not rest solely with Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Instead, the Islam…

As Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lays the groundwork for a new round of nuclear negotiations with the United States, and Ali Larijani, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a willingness to offer nuclear-related concessions in exchange for sanctions relief, Iranian political analysts view President Donald J. Tru…

Today's program discusses renewed speculations about direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington, and as before, the two capitals appear out of sync: historically, when Washington was ready to negotiate with Iran, formidable impediments, primarily Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prevented Tehran to take part in negotiations. Now that Tehran ap…

Officially, the United States has maintained a military presence in Syria since September 2014. As of December, approximately 900 U.S. troops reportedly remain in Syria - a number which according to the latest reports may be closer to 2000. This military posture could face a rapid reconfiguration with President-elect Donald J. Trump’s impending ret…

There is renewed speculation about Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as the leader of the revolution and Iran's head of state. Separatelly, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are engaged in poorly coordinated attempts to reach out to President-Elect Donald J. Trump to prepare the ground for negotiations with th…

The central government in Iran, whether under the Pahlavi regime or the Islamic Republic, has historically provided institutionalized spaces for experts to engage in debates on technical—and occasionally political—issues aligned with state interests. These platforms, often manifesting as think tanks, policy research centers, and other quasi-officia…

Commander Behrouz Esbati, the Public Affairs Director of the Joint Force Cyber Command, on January 7 centered his speech on his firsthand observations of the systemic collapse of the Assad regime. Approximately one hour of his speech was published by Tabnak News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Dr. Mohsen Rezaei, the longest-serving Chief Commande…

There has always been a correlation, if not causality, between technological innovation and sociopolitical transformation: Gutenberg’s printing press catalyzed the Protestant Reformation, and from his exile in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini famously utilized cassette tape recordings of his sermons to galvanize the Iranian populace against…

· On January 1, Dr. Ali Larijani, former Supreme National Security Council secretary, and adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defended Iran's track record in Syria. It is not known if Dr. Larijani's spin is only meant for the Iranian public, or he delivers the same message to Khamenei.By Ali Alfoneh

As the Islamic Republic commemorated the fifth anniversary of assassination of Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem Suleimani, many public figures, who had personal interactions with him delivered lengthy interviews discussing this near-mythical individual. On January 2nd, I discussed former Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif's interview with K…

Former Foreign Minister Dr. Mohammad-Javad Zarif's interview with January 1, 2025 edition of Khorasan newspaper not only provides some insights into his relationship with the late Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem, but also into inter-agency rivalry between the Foreign Ministry and the Quds Force. An audio recording, allegedly leaked to the med…

In the history of most countries, some eras appear more glorious than others. And at times, the past appears more glorious than what we expect of the future. This was my sense monitoring Iran's state-censored media today. Addressing the families of martyrs, including the family of Quds Force Chief Major General Qassem Soleimani, widows of Hezbollah…

On December 30, Tehran witnessed two competing demonstrations emblematic of Iran's polarized political climate: one orchestrated by the regime and the other a spontaneous expression of public dissent triggered by the latest depreciation of the Iranian Rial against the U.S. Dollar. The state-organized rally aimed to commemorate the fifteenth anniver…

While presence of Iranian nationals among the Tahrir al-Sham Movement risks radicalizing the Sunnis in Iran, and therefore constitutes a security threat to the Islamic Republic, some of those radicals may be Intelligence Ministry infiltrators. However, infiltrators too can at times go rogue and pursue their self-interests.…

On December 15, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement announcing suspension of the so-called "Hijab and Chastity Law," formally known as the "The Bill Supporting Families By Propagating the Culture of Chastity and Hijab". The bill, which was passed on June 13, 2024, was the regime's reaction to anti-hijab protests in the wake …

While President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the technocratic elites of the Islamic Republic appear to have accepted Iran’s total defeat in Syria, and are reaching out to the new rulers of that country to establish formal relations, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard and IRGC affiliated media outlets are …

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's December 22 address on the occasion of the birth anniversary of Fatemeh Zahra had little to do with plight of women, and a good deal to do with regional developments, in particular Syria. He appeared irritated by Israel's "boasting" and "grand standing," assured the Iranian public that Israel was defeated rather than victor…

In the Islamic Republic, there is no government. Everyone is a member of the opposition when there is public criticism of the regime's performance. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkheni, Supreme National Security Council secretary from 2013 to 2023 is one of the few exceptions to this rule, and today's program is dedicated to his answers to critical questions…

In the Islamic Republic, there is no government. Everyone is a member of the opposition when there is public criticism of the regime's performance. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkheni, Supreme National Security Council secretary from 2013 to 2023 is one of the few exceptions to this rule, and today's program is dedicated to his answers to critical questions…

In the Islamic Republic, there is no government. Everyone is a member of the opposition when there is public criticism of the regime's performance. Rear Admiral Ali Shamkheni, Supreme National Security Council secretary from 2013 to 2023 is one of the few exceptions to this rule, and today's program is dedicated to his answers to critical questions…

Collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and manifest defeat of the Revolutionary Guard’s strategy in Syria have exposed the organization to public critique in Iran. While still short of demanding accountability, reformist politicians are openly calling for civilian control over the military, and civilian supremacy in national security decision-making.…

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei showed defiance in defeat in his first public statement in the wake of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Indirectly, he accused the new rulers of Syria of being agents of the United States and Israel. Furthermore, he claimed Iran was willing, but incapable of airlifting troops to Syria due to U…

On Asr-e Iran's satirical commentary on the 95% of Syrian voters, who voted for Bashar al-Assad in the May 2021 presidential election in Syria, but failed to support him in the face of armed opponents; and Fars News Agency's involuntarily commical comment on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urging Assad to "democratise Syria". The program also features an En…

Fiasco!By Ali Alfoneh

Iran’s national security strategy is evident. Lebanese Hezbollah, Tehran’s most prominent proxy, is in disarray, while the Assad regime in Syria, once a linchpin for the strategic overland corridor linking Iran to Lebanon via Iraq, is on the verge of either disintegration or defection from Iran’s camp. Today, rather than delving into real-time upda…

If you’ve been keeping an eye on global developments, as I assume many of you have, you’re likely aware of the seismic shift in Syria: Aleppo has fallen under the control of Tahrir al-Sham, a faction designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States in May 2018. While the rapidity of this development may have taken some by surpris…

In today’s program, I’ll spend a few minutes critiquing the Revolutionary Guard-affiliated media's preposterous commentary on the ceasefire in Lebanon. However, I won’t dwell on these absurdities for too long. Instead, I’ll transition to discussing an interview in Etemad newspaper with Mr. Mohsen Mir-Damadi, a reformist political activist, who prov…

Today’s program focuses on a story from Jamaran News Agency, which may not be a familiar name to most of you, but it represents a noteworthy institution expressing the perspectives of the household of the late Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. For context, "Jamaran" refers to a village situated on the mountain…

Today, my focus is on two articles featured in yesterday's edition of Sazandegi newspaper, a publication representing the technocratic elites of Iran. The editor and most of the columnists associated with this newspaper have held governmental responsibilities, which grants them a distinctly pragmatic approach to politics compared to the average Ira…

Today's program is dominated by the escalating tensions between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). On November 21, select members of the IAEA Board of Governors, including Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, passed a resolution urging Iran to enhance its cooperation with the agency and provide a “comprehensive” rep…

There was a time when the European Union (EU) was perceived as Iran’s ally, counterbalancing what Tehran labeled as the U.S. “Great Satan.” During those years, Europe often sought to shield Iran from Washington’s more aggressive policies. However, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically. Iran’s growing alignment with Russia has alienate…

As some of you may recall, yesterday’s program was dedicated to the November 14 meeting between Mr. Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, and Mr. Elon Musk, entrepreneur and adviser to President Donald J. Trump. Today’s program will continue this discussion, as the alleged meeting remains a focal point in Iran’s heavily censo…

The focus of today’s discussion is the November 14th meeting between Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Mr. Amir Saeid Iravani, and Mr. Elon Musk, the prominent entrepreneur and perceived confidant of President-elect Donald J. Trump. According to the November 14th edition of the New York Times, the two gentlemen engaged in discussions lasting…