Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.) For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic …

In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments. They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential de…

This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked. Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United Sta…

This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook. They explore topi…

We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts. Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders’ valuations, the effectiveness of expor…

We’re taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and into the future. Mark and Raph discuss the explosion of AI and where it might be headed, as well as its impact on financial markets. We contemplate what might constitute the next big wave of global in…

This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mark and Su-lin reflect on Australia’s economic conditions and the RBA’s 2024 performance. They unpack why the RBA has held interest rates steady for so long – and what this means for Australia’s economi…

The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table. Also, Mark looks back at his predictions from a year ago, revisiting his forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. Get your ticket to AGS: https://www.aicd.com.au/events/australian-…

This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth since the pandemic with private sector demand contributing nothing to this meager growth figure. Will the RBA stay the course with rates on hold in the face of a deepening per capita recession and falli…

This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe’s economic powerhouse - Germany. We examine the country's recent economic struggles, exploring the reasons behind its faltering performance, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, and the rise of Chinese manufacturing. We discuss whether these challenges are merely cyclical or …

This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly shaky call for a February rate cut. Is the RBA being too pessimistic about what the unemployment rate associated with full employment needs to be? Plus, the Dismal Science takes a metaphorical visit to …

Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result. We examine some of the key economic policy pledges that President Elect President Donald Trump made during the campaign, from tariffs to taxes, and discuss the possible ramifications for interest rates, inflation, growth, and other economic variables. Presid…

This week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys, and the AICD's Director Sentiment Index. The Wage Price Index showed annual growth slowing to 3.5%, a welcome development for the RBA in its fight against inflation. But with productivity growth stal…

The big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it means for Australia. Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month. We examine the RBA's latest forecasts, which suggest a slightly …

This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures. The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the headline numbers showing a decrease in inflation. This was largely driven by government rebates and falling fuel prices. However, services inflation remains stubbornly high. Additionally, some commentators …

Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest consumer confidence numbers. In brief, it was an optimistic outlook from the IMF, begging the question, is central bank credibility back? With that said, champagne flutes should remain in the fridge, …

Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Israel-Iran conflict and speculation about Chinese stimulus measures. We then unpack the latest RBA minutes, analysing the central bank's current thinking on interest rates and its assessment of the econo…

Much to discuss on the agenda today. We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals. Retail sales showed strength - but the RBA and other analysts disagree on why. Were they impacted by the weather, stage 3 tax cuts, or an early father's day? Mark will be the judge. Additionally, Australia…

We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigilance is necessary. Our discussion then turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision to maintain current interest rates. The focal point of our episode is China's economic situation. We add…

In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world. We discuss the significance of the still tight Australian labour market and its implications for monetary policy, dissect why the US Federal Reserve decided on a rather large 50 basis point rate cut, and explore how Middle East tensions co…

Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank independence means, its historical development, and the evidence for its effectiveness. Mark analyses key moments in the formation of modern central bank theory including "The golden age of central b…

We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrating his dad’s 80th birthday in Saltburn. We explore the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold steady on rates, as anticipated, and examine the global interest rate landscape, including hints of…

It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what he's learned along the way. Plus, an experiment in UBI and what we can expect from Trumponomics and Kamalanomics. A big thank you to all of our listeners for getting us this far.…

Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectations of an interest rate rise jump. Topic two discusses the unlikely "marriage of convenience" between some renting millenials and some debt free baby boomers, both hoping for rate hikes. And finally, …

Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on: • RBA Minutes • Core logic house and rent price data • Retail sales numbers • Job ads And the number of the week this week asks: if climate change results in supply shocks become increasingly regular to the point of predictability, should food inflation still b…

Monthly inflation numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates. What does the upcoming French election tell us about Britain, bonds and post-covid fiscal policy? And does the much hyped Guzman Y Gomez IPO and subsequent share price pop suggest that burritos are recession proof?

Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continue to, as the Chinese saying goes, pull strongly against the raging tide? Plus, hawkish sounds from the RBA as the path grows ever narrower and the effect of WFH on real wages.…

An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a small open economy be doing more to bring back global trade? Plus, continuing resilience in the jobs market, continuing weakness in overall growth, and higher for longer rates in the US.…

Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama canal. But could it get even worse? Plus, inflation picks up again in Australia and retail sales remain stagnant.

New Zealand economist Roger Dennis advises boards globally on long-term thinking and foresight. We spoke to him on how directors should think about the seemingly endless proliferation of risks, what he calls the paradox of preparedness, and whether Kiwis, living on the edge of the world, have a unique perspective on risk. For more of Roger's thinki…

The treasurer had a juggling act to perform in this budget: fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief, inflation reduction and productivity growth were all balls to keep in the air. How did he do? Plus, the job market weakens and wage growth falls.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we preview the budget, higher for longer interest rates in the US and a weak retail sales number.By Chart with decreasing yen emoji

A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migration.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move might be up again rather than down? Plus, a slight softening in the jobs market and just how much does negative gearing impact property prices?By Australian Institute of Company Directors

Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero transition, and mitigating geostrategic risk are touted as key benefits. But does it stack up economically? Plus, new stricter merger rules and more mixed confidence results.…

A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while also lowering prices for consumers? Would increasing competition lead to more innovation? Or has the supermarket experience improved despite the lack of competition? Plus, strong US jobs numbers and an …

Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by problems recently. Can we continue to trust these key economic indicators? Plus, dovish noises from the Reserve Bank on interest rates, as inflation continues to ease, though house prices march on.…

Live at last week's Australian Governance Summit, we asked what could be done about Australia's languishing productivity: can policy make a difference? Will AI save us? Could it be as simple as building more houses? Plus, a first rate cut might be nearing and an extraordinary plunge in the jobless rate. Regular listeners will notice some snazzy new…

Australia's GDP per capital continues to go backwards as growth slows to snail's pace. Plus, we look ahead to next week's RBA meeting, Powell hints interest rate cuts might be imminent in the US and more Swiftonomics.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

Inflation is falling but so is growth, is the path to a soft landing for Australia narrowing still? Plus, a deal for what it's worth at the WTO and the UK economy as Willy Wonka experience.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

The World Trade Organisation met last week. Not that you'd know it. Is the dream of global trade done? Plus, with real wages finally growing, could the RBA really raise rates again?By Australian Institute of Company Directors

An uptick in US inflation shows the path back down might not be smooth, plus back home the labour market cools, hyperinflation in Argentina, and is Bitcoin back?By Australian Institute of Company Directors

After the new look RBA meeting, the governor now holds a media conference where she addressed the future path of interest rates, as well as Taylor Swift's effect on inflation. Plus, China acts to backstop its sagging equity markets.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

Inflation is moderating in Australia and the IMF says the global economy is on "the final descent toward a soft landing". 2024 might be looking up. Plus, what to expect from next week's new look RBA meeting.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

We look at the government's changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts. How will this affect the distribution and will they be inflationary? Plus, business confidence plunges and the IMF warns against cutting rates any time soon.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

Happy New Year listeners! Big ep to get us rolling: Consumer confidence sliding, signs of slackening in the jobs market and weaker inflation point to the RBA holding in February, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez, more weak numbers from China, Mark's apocalyptic beach reading, and the housing market marches on.…

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's forecasts and gaze into the crystal ball to see what's ahead in 2024. Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more epsiodes.By Australian Institute of Company Directors

The RBA will now speak with multiple voices with all board members expected to speak to the public. Will this lead to greater transparency or muddy the waters further? Plus, more bumper jobs growth, the MYEFO reveals another jump in tax receipts, Milei takes his razor to Argentine spending and another COP climate conference goes by.…

"Australia's economy hit the wall in the September quarter," according to Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan. Disposable incomes have declined steeply and consumer spending is weak. Have the rate cuts done their job now? Could the next move be down rather than up? Plus, Venezualan revanchism and Guyana's oil and gas boom.…

Self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidential election. Do desperate times call for desperate measures as Argentina looks to escape hyperinflation? Plus, the RBA board worries about its credibility and the OpenAI board worries about the future of humanity. Ivan's had another audio fail this week. Apologies. We kn…