In the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of “Liberation Day”, and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations based on political affiliation. We also tie this to th…

In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large tra…

With headlines versus earnings moving markets, we look at the perceptions and realities influencing investors (and speculators). In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and …

With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the big…

After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields…

We take a wicked look upward, where both unidentified drones and market valuations reside. We also discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, investor sentiment, and the outlook for corporate margins (and employment) as AI gains greater adoption. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.…

We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean. Learn more about Formidab…

This week, Will and Adam discuss how markets typically respond to the election cycle, and the importance of staying committed to the long-term view when it comes to investing. We also do a deep, some may say submarine, dive on the phenomenon causing some of the extreme weather we are seeing, and compare this type of explosion and its effects to how…

We recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Ea…

Special guest Kalee Kreider joins us to discuss the recent presidential debate, its impact on the November election, and all things political. We also explore the impact of broad trends like inflation and AI on the election, the economy, and markets. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formid…

Will and Adam discuss the large downward revision in job creation and analyze its causes and implications. With the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, they review its current stance on interest rates versus market expectations, as well as the divergent paths the market has historically taken around rate cutting cycles. Learn more about Formidable Asset M…

Will and Adam return to provide insight on recent market tumult. We look at the causes (recession concerns, Japanese bank policy) and the effects (sharp decline, quick rebound, spike in volatility). We compare what is normal about today’s environment versus the anomalies that cause us some concern. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will…

We wish Formidable a happy 11th birthday, though the more eccentric among us may say “get well soon”, instead. Regardless, we look back on our approach to college planning and the merits of trade schools in the era of AI. We also examine AI’s broader implications for inflation, wages, and stocks, both those that area direct beneficiaries (like the …

Will and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed’s approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting some measures of financial conditions. Learn more abo…

We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed’s path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key topics, as are some of the recent divergences in the histor…

Will and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed’s changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing. Finally, we explore whether one can forge their own signat…

In episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed’s shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today’s market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Br…

We welcome back special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. With November fast approaching, we get her take on the candidates, what states might determine the outcome, and why “double haters” may be the deciding factor. We also evaluate the implications of the outcome in ter…

In episode 64, Will and Adam discuss the winnowing of the Magnificent Seven to somewhere between three and four, and the exorbitant valuations on the shrinking number of winners. We also look at the conundrum faced by businesses dealing with pushback from consumers on rising prices while at the same time increasing demands (not to mention governmen…

Will and Adam return from a hiatus with the S&P 500 at an all-time high. They recap what drove returns in 2023 (index flows, zero-day options, the Magnificent Seven) and what expectations are baked into valuations at current levels (above-average earnings growth and six Fed rate cuts). They also juxtapose the divergent growth expectations the low p…

We revisit the risks associated with passive investing as the Magnificent Seven stocks become even more unmoored from the rest of the S&P 500. We also analyze the likelihood of the Fed engineering a soft landing, why the market may have celebrated a win on inflation too early, and how we are trying to navigate through this challenging environment. …

We talk about the ongoing shift in labor market dynamics and its implications for inflation going forward, which could be “higher-er for longer-er”. The market’s recent rebound, fueled by hopes of a soft landing and a bounce in the most shorted stocks, is also discussed. We also look at concentration of the index in a handful of stocks and compare …

Will and Adam provide their perspective on the market impact of events in Israel and Gaza, which come at a perilous time from a market perspective with yields reaching psychologically important levels. We also discuss how flows into passive funds have had an outsized impact on the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and juxtapose their performance (…

In the midst of typical seasonal weakness, we examine the causes for the stock market’s recent volatility, as well as the unprecedented moves in the bond market. We also look at oil’s ability to help the economy to a Goldilocks scenario, how labor unrest is affecting inflation and consumer sentiment, and whether one person can riot. Learn more abou…

After enjoying the festivities, including a fantastic caricature, we delve into the underappreciated risks associated with both zero-day options and put writing, given the launch of a new ETF that combines the two. We examine the market’s recent reaction to CPI data and the potential for inflation to re-accelerate with soaring oil prices and wage p…

We parse Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and assess the odds (and timing) of further rate hikes versus a pivot. We also examine the impact on the global economy of China’s weakening property market. We conclude with a look at the recent weakness in U.S. consumer stocks and debate whether expectations for megacap tech earnings are too high in…

We return from hiatus with a recap of the happenings in emerging markets, including Chinese property problems and Argentinian elections. We juxtapose the echo boom in tech names with the so-called dot com darlings, and look at how those high-flying companies fared in terms of sales growth (outstanding) and investment returns (dreadful). We close wi…

We welcome special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. She offers a unique perspective on the recent debt ceiling resolution, as well as the broader implications of “Bidenomics”. She, Will, and Adam discuss the implications of fiscal policy on the Fed, inflation, and the pol…

We discuss the continuing game of chicken being played over the debt ceiling, and why any ultimate resolution to increase the government’s borrowing ability is a negative for bond yields and equities. Also, you cannot have a podcast in 2023 without talking about AI, and we explore its impact on equity market returns so far this year (positive) as w…

We discuss recent comments by the Fed and bank industry luminaries as it relates to whether the current bank crisis is closer to the beginning or the end. We also delve into the continuing divergence between earnings expectations and interest rate expectations, and why this is the most important problem markets must solve. Finally, we cover the sim…

Technology investors keep dancing as the NASDAQ enters a bull market. We compare the performance of the largest names in the index versus the rest and evaluate the reasons why the performance of the average stock has been so lackluster. We also delve into the seemingly irreconcilable difference between the outlook for earnings and interest rates, a…

We delve deeply into pun-ditry, as well as a continued post-mortem of Silicon Valley Bank. Will casts doubts over Adam’s ability to be a bond guy (or girl), and they also discuss the Fed’s strong conviction, Wile E. Coyote-style stretching of the economic rubber band and the potential implications of its snap back in the event the Fed is forced to …

Will and Adam provide an update on the continued fallout in the banking sector, including what it means for consumers and markets. The surprising rebound in technology stocks despite a nascent banking crisis is also analyzed and compared to what we experienced during the financial crisis. We also debate what the opposite of inverted is and why it i…

We discuss the topic on everyone’s mind, Silicon Valley Bank, and delve into the reasons for its failure and potential consequences. Who’s to blame, who’s not, and what comes next? Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.By Will Brown and Adam Eagleston

We look at the self-proclaimed new Nasdaq, a.k.a., Ark, as emblematic of the ferocious return of speculation in 2023. We also look at the behavior of meme stock speculators and debate the role the Fed may or may not in fomenting speculation as it (and we) debate how restrictive policy is versus how restrictive it needs to be. Learn more about Formi…

Will and Adam discuss the challenges faced by the Fed as it sees financial conditions easing despite its efforts to restrict monetary policy. We also analyze the health of the consumer in the world of high interest rates, low savings rates, and increasing levels of debt. The unprecedented collapse in money supply growth, and the recent spike in vel…

We review a challenging 2022, capped off by a December to forget for those looking for a Santa rally. The causes (Fed policy, rampant retail speculation) and effects (multiple compression, sizable capital losses) are analyzed, along with some perspective on how we are preparing for 2023. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and…

We give an enthusiastic meh to 2022, an anomalous year in so many ways: stocks and bonds both lower, the Fed raising rates at a historic pace, and geopolitical turmoil. We also delve into the Fed’s inflation versus recession conundrum, the consequences of capital once again having a cost, and what 2023 may hold based on our top-down process. Learn …

We review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot. Learn more about Formida…

In the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning. Learn more abou…

Does the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidabl…

We look at the historically woeful start to 2022 for both stocks and bonds and explain why these coinciding declines are causing stress in the financial system, as well for investors. We also analyze the efficacy of the Fed’s toolkit to fight inflation and how rate increases typically flow through the economy. Finally, we describe how the market ha…

Are recent comments by the Fed inspiring or perspiring? We discuss the sub-optimal setup for the European Central Bank, what is helping (and hurting) the case for a reversion to sub-2% inflation domestically, and what it means for markets over the near- and medium-term. Also, public service announcements on preventative health care and meme stocks.…

We look at the situation facing the Fed as the market anxiously awaits comments from Jackson Hole. With student debt forgiveness and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act renewing fiscal stimulus, can the Fed engineer a soft landing? We also analyze the divergence between the favorable technical setup versus stretched valuations. Finally, we recap t…

In a market that makes about as much sense as August having an extra day, we examine the reasons for the strong equity returns in July and the incongruent views the market currently has on rates versus earnings expectations. We also discuss the squeeze consumers are feeling as savings rates decline and credit card debt expands. Learn more about For…

After a brief hiatus, Will and Adam return to talk about the market’s welcome recent rebound. Is it a head fake or will the bad news is good news narrative continue? Higher inflation and restrictive Fed policy have the potential to head butt investors, but the technical set-up remains favorable. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Br…

Are equity markets still in the danger zone? Join Will, Adam, and Kenny Loggins (well, two of the three) as they discuss the brief bear market, what is fueling the recent rebound, and whether we are in for more turbulence. Can the Fed engineer a soft landing, or will it crash and burn? Be our wingman as we explore these topics and more. Learn more …

Investors are certainly frowning upon the Fed’s recent comments. We explore large caps trading like small caps, how inflation is affecting consumer behavior and how companies are responding. We also delve into prior periods of market distress to look for signs as to how far along the current drawdown may be. Learn more about Formidable Asset Manage…

The market’s recent selloff is in focus. Can the Fed be seen as slightly accommodative while still getting a handle on inflation, or is that just as impossible as our title? What are the effects of the war in Ukraine and Chinese lockdowns on inflation, and how big are they as building blocks of the current wall of worry? We also discuss the parts o…

Will the Fed do little, or is under too much political pressure to just talk about raising rates to fight inflation? Is China’s “zero Covid” policy really an inflation fighting tool? What explains the divergence between institutional and retail investor behavior, and are they considering the tough lessons the market taught us in the 1970s and late …